Has there ever been a September without a tropical storm?

Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach and FOX Weather hurricane expert Bryan Norcross discuss the current calm period for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Hostile factors in the eastern Atlantic, including cooler waters near the coast of Africa, are helping to reduce storm activity.

September is historically the peak of hurricane season, when the chances of a cyclone moving through the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are highest, but some years are more active than others.

Since 1851, 732 hurricanes have been observed in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in September.

But in the last 173 years of data, there has never been a season where at least one cyclone did not cross the Atlantic during the month of September.

The month typically experiences the warmest water temperatures of the year in the basin and upper-level shear is relatively modest compared to other months of the season.

Despite generally favourable conditions, there were seasons when the atmosphere was not particularly conducive to the formation of tropical cyclones.

A FOX Weather analysis found nearly a dozen years in which only one tropical cyclone was reported in September, with the most recent occurring in 1939.

Other years include 1851, 1855, 1862, 1890, 1895, 1902, 1914, 1925, and 1930, all predating the modern satellite era.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON: AUGUST ENDS WITHOUT A NAMED STORM FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DECADES

732 cyclones reported in the Atlantic basin in September

(NOAA)

The modern era of satellites is recognized by forecasters as the period when data accuracy has improved dramatically, instead of relying on observer data.

The Atlantic Basin era began in the 1960s with the launch of the first infrared television observation satellite or what is commonly called TIROS-1.

TIROS-1 became the first operational weather satellite and led to a series of TIROS launches in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s.

Before the age of satellites, forecasters admit that it is entirely possible that there were tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes that were never recorded in the historical database, but without observations, the systems will never be counted.

The first infrared television observation satellite or commonly called TIROS-1.

(NOAA)

WHERE TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING EACH MONTH OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON

The least active September in recent history was in 2014, when only two cyclones formed in a well-below-average tropical season.

During the year of neutral influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, eight named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes formed between June 1 and November 30.

Tropical Storm Dolly formed on September 1 and affected Mexico and southern Texas, while Hurricane Edward developed in the central Atlantic and eventually moved harmlessly out to sea.

At the time, hurricane experts, including those at Colorado State University, expected the year to be relatively quiet, and the seasonal outlook did not disappoint.

Six years later, in the 2020 season, the Atlantic basin experienced its busiest September in history with 10 named storms.

A total of 30 named storms formed during a seven-month period from May to November, with 14 cyclones becoming hurricanes and seven reaching major hurricane status.