Zach Lowe wonders if Hawks could be heading toward inevitable decision point with Trae

The NBA offseason has been quiet since free agency began. There’s still a chance Utah forward Lauri Markkanen could be traded, Brandon Ingram is another player in trade rumors, and there’s still a chance someone could buy Bulls point guard Zach LaVine on the cheap, but it seems like most teams are set for the 2024-25 season.

The Hawks still have some roster moves to make, but it doesn’t appear they’re going to do anything major this summer. Atlanta selected Zaccharie Risacher with the No. 1 overall pick, then traded Dejounte Murray to New Orleans for Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance, E.J. Liddell, Cody Zeller and two first-round picks, including an unprotected 2025 pick from the Lakers. Atlanta reshuffled its roster to better integrate Trae Young in hopes of making the playoffs next season.

But how good will this team be this season? ESPN’s Zach Lowe wrote about the Hawks in a new column and talked about where they fit into the Eastern Conference landscape after this offseason they’ve had. He mentioned that while the Hawks are a young team, they’re not better than the top eight teams in the East, but they’re much better than the bottom of the conference. He questioned whether this developmental path would be attractive to Trae Young in the long run and whether the Hawks are headed toward an inevitable decision point when it comes to their star point guard.

Here is his full speech:

“The Hawks took the middle ground after jumping to the top spot in the lottery: They picked a high-value prospect like Zaccharie Risacher and then traded the one of their star guards — Dejounte Murray, in the end — who brought them the biggest return. They didn’t get to trade young players or picks for short-term wins. They couldn’t bottom out because the Spurs control their first-round picks through 2027, so they got decent value by trading Murray.

With Trae Young still on board, the Hawks can develop their youth while staying at .500. And yet, now that they’ve come that far, the end result seems uncertain and perhaps unsatisfactory. Getting their picks back by trading Young to San Antonio would have eliminated them entirely before the 2025 and 2026 drafts. Interest in Young from the Spurs and Lakers has cooled in recent months, sources said, but such doors never close.

At 25, Young could be the oldest member of a potential starting five that includes Dyson Daniels, Risacher, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu. Johnson is 22 and has All-Star potential. He and Risacher could become an explosive, complementary duo at forward. Young could lead a fun, dynamic team that could be ready to hit its peak in the middle of its career.

Don’t write this starting five off. Clint Capela is still around, in the final year of his contract — and on the trade market, sources say. De’Andre Hunter certainly wants to start. Daniels’ unstable shot could make him a poor fit for an off-ball role next to Young. That said, Daniels is a natural in a fast-paced system, and his secondary play — and Johnson’s — could make it easier for Young to carve out a spot as Atlanta works to diversify its offense. Daniels is an elite defender, and Atlanta needs those around Young.

Bogdan Bogdanovic could start, but he can bolster the offense alongside Kobe Bufkin while Young rests — a chronic weak spot until Atlanta acquires Murray. The Hawks are optimistic that Mouhamed Gueye — their 2023 second-round pick — is ready to stake a claim in the rotation, sources said. Gueye and Vit Krejci could round out a decent bench rotation.

But where does all this leave us? There are clearly eight teams in the top eight in the East: the Boston Celtics, Knicks, Sixers, Milwaukee Bucks, Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers and Miami Heat. One of those teams is going to disappoint, but it’s hard to imagine the Hawks rising above the play-in. In the meantime, they’re much better than the scum.

The development-based path might be too slow for Young. The more aggressive path — trading 2029 and 2031 first-round picks for veterans — might be too much, too soon. The Hawks could be headed toward an inevitable decision point with Young.

I think the Hawks could be a much better team than people think this season. It should also be noted that while Young has said he wants to win, he hasn’t objected to the direction the Hawks are going. I’m not saying things couldn’t end up that way at some point (things can always change in the future), but Young hasn’t given any indication that he wants to leave or is unhappy with the direction they’re going. I think it’s best to wait and see how this team performs this season. I also don’t think the Hawks should rush out and make a big trade and use up all their assets, at least this offseason. A patient approach is what the Hawks should be doing right now and reviewing everything after the season.

I think it would be better for the Hawks to find a trade partner for Capela and let Okongwu start this season. After selecting him with the 6th overall pick in 2020, Atlanta still doesn’t know if he’s their long-term solution at center, despite signing him to a long-term deal. While Capela is still good, he’s now 30 and his contract is expiring.

Hunter is trickier. I think he’s a good player, but would he be willing to come off the bench if Risacher were to start? He could start until Risacher is ready, but he was very good as a backup last season. I like the idea of ​​Bogdanovic coming off the bench to help second-year point guard Kobe Bufkin with the second unit. If Capela is traded, Nance is a good backup center.

There’s a chance that all of these young pieces come together and this team looks like the fifth seed in the East during the 2020-21 season. I’m not saying the Hawks will finish that high or reach the conference finals, but this team could come together.

The Hawks’ potential will depend on the growth of the young players around Trae. If Daniels can be a three-point threat and be able to move around the court, he’s a perfect partner next to Young from a defensive standpoint. If Risacher starts, he’ll bring more defense and size around Trae, as well as shooting (despite his struggling summer league numbers). Can Jalen Johnson take another big step? If he does and becomes an All-Star level player, the Hawks will become a more dangerous team. Okongwu has shown flashes and he and Johnson play well together. Can Bufkin stay healthy and be the primary backup point guard?

Daniels, Johnson, Risacher, Okongwu, and Bufkin (not to mention Gueye and Krejci) will determine how good this team is, because we know how good Trae Young is and what he brings to the table.

As long as Young doesn’t ask to be there or say he wants the Hawks to make more moves to win, I don’t think the Hawks should be pressured to do anything with Young or make any more big moves. This is still a young team with talent and they could be a lot better than people think, while some teams that were good last year might not be as good this year. Young is the centerpiece of the franchise and I think he will continue to be that going forward.