Two Astros takeaways: Hunter Brown’s rise and how the luxury tax could impact the trade deadline

HOUSTON — The Houston Astros have mastered the art of making history. Their latest attempt may be their most daunting. Since 1901, they are one of 159 teams to start a season losing 17 of 24 games. Of the previous 158, four finished with a winning record. Only two have made the playoffs.

The Astros got a big boost this weekend to become Houston’s third-best hope. By winning two of three games against Seattle, the Astros joined the Mariners atop the American League West. The Astros slept Saturday with the division lead for the first time this season.

Sunday’s 6-4 loss set up a virtual tie and a furious 63-game finale to break it. If general manager Dana Brown’s insistence in May didn’t signal it, his team will be aggressively buying during the July 30 trade deadline, focusing on its injury-ravaged starting rotation.

Here are two takeaways as Brown and his baseball operations team begin their work.

Luxury Tax Explained

Houston’s proximity to the second luxury tax threshold could influence the club’s decision-making at the trade deadline, unless owner Jim Crane chooses to venture further into uncharted territory.

Crane already has the largest payroll in franchise history and is set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time since he took over. The Astros first passed the luxury tax threshold in 2020, but the penalties were waived during the pandemic-shortened season.

This year, the Astros have a luxury tax payroll of $254,790,044, according to Cot’s Contracts, more than $17 million above the first threshold of $237 million and just $2.2 million shy of exceeding the second at $257 million.

Teams that trade players are only liable for the prorated remainder of their 2024 salaries. That amount is also the only one that is reflected on their payroll under the luxury tax.

If Crane is hesitant to cross the second threshold, starters like Chicago’s Chris Flexen, Colorado’s Austin Gomber and Oakland’s Paul Blackburn are cheap enough to keep his club under that threshold. Texas’ Michael Lorenzen could also be a candidate, but it’s fair to wonder whether the Rangers would consider a trade with their intrastate division rivals.

Austin Gomber has a 4.61 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings. (Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Crossing the second threshold would force Crane to pay a 12% surcharge on the 20% tax he already pays after crossing the first. It’s unclear whether ownership is willing to accept that proposition: Crane hasn’t spoken to a group of reporters since acquiring Justin Verlander at last season’s trade deadline.

This winter, people familiar with Crane’s thinking said he was hesitant to cross the first threshold of the luxury tax for a marginal upgrade. Signing Josh Hader is anything but a good idea, so Crane and Brown signed the closer to the five-year, $95 million deal that propelled Houston to this position.

Assuming the winter precedent holds, one wonders if the Astros are in the market for another blockbuster, though nothing in their prospect pool suggests they’ll be able to pull one off. The team also needs to prioritize starting pitchers, and there aren’t any names available that would be enough to make a splash.

If this conversation sounds familiar, it happened last offseason. Houston traded two of its top prospects, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, for Verlander, who didn’t become available until days before the deadline. The team’s scouting system can’t continue to sustain this much high-level attrition, but Crane has already proven once that he prioritizes pennants over prospects.

With Verlander unable to pitch 140 innings — reaching that total would trigger a $35 million player option for 2025 — and Alex Bregman entering free agency after the season, it’s worth wondering if Crane could do it again.

Is Brown becoming the ace Houston needs?

The Astros never needed to add an ace. Having one of their players blossom before their eyes only reinforces that idea.

Hunter Brown threw six more scoreless innings in Friday’s series opener against the Seattle Mariners, maintaining a transformation that must factor into the Astros’ trade deadline calculation. Acquiring at least one starter is always a must, but if there were an urgency to bolster the front of Houston’s rotation, Brown could mitigate it.

The thwarting of Seattle perfectly summed up the magnitude of Brown’s change. He had a 9.78 ERA in his last appearance against the Mariners, on May 5. That day, at Bregman’s request, Brown began throwing a two-seam fastball.

Brown has posted a 2.25 ERA in 81 1/3 innings since then. During that span, only two American League starters have a lower ERA: Garrett Crochet and Corbin Burnes, who just started in the All-Star Game.

Crochet could be the only frontcourt player to be moved at the trade deadline. Even if more players become available over the next eight days, Houston doesn’t have the prospect capital to acquire any of them.

Brown’s rise might make that deficiency moot. He’s not a true ace, but he’s pitched like one for two months, a sample size that’s increasingly hard to ignore. Brown has completed six innings in 11 straight outings, 10 of which were quality starts.

Opponents have a .619 OPS against Brown since he introduced his sinker. Brown has thrown 229 of those two-seamers to right-handed hitters. Only three of them have been hit over 95 mph, and none of them have been hits.

Brown’s sinker has an 8.3 percent success rate. No pitch in baseball generates fewer, and no other pitch thrown at least 175 times has a success rate of less than 10 percent. Maintaining those numbers seems impossible, but a 3.67 FIP and .270 BABIP over Brown’s 81 1/3 innings aided by the sinker suggests there’s no drastic regression in sight.

Brown crossed the 100-inning mark in Friday’s season opener and is now 58 1/3 innings away from matching the career-high workload he undertook last season.

Brown has pitched on an extra day of rest in nine of his 14 appearances since adding a sinker. Houston’s deadline should be focused on continuing that trend for Brown and Ronel Blanco — two starters who could use reinforcements.

(Top Hunter Brown photo: Alika Jenner/Getty Images)