Atlanta Braves trade scenarios: Jim Bowden weighs 4 proposals to address key needs

The top three starters in the Atlanta Braves’ rotation were among the best in baseball throughout the first half of the season, and the team’s high-powered offense reawakened after a widespread slump that lasted over 40 games and was the main reason they fell as much as 10 1/2 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East.

But even though the Braves cut a few games ahead of Philly and feel good about their chances every time Max Fried, Chris Sale or Reynaldo López start, they have a few holes in their lineup and a steep decline at rear of the rotation. . They need to address two areas before the trade deadline: corner outfielder and starting pitcher.

Outfielder Adam Duvall and shortstop Orlando Arcia have struggled at the plate all season, especially lately, as Duvall hit .124 over the last 30 days before Thursday and Arcia hit .129, and they’re lugging the two worst OPS of any qualifying player in that span – Duvall .359 and Arcia .397. Yeah.

The Braves are willing to lean on Arcia because of his solid defense and the energy he brings to the dugout and locker room. They have a decent backup (Zack Short) and a top shortstop prospect (Nacho Alvarez Jr.) who has impressed in Triple-A.

But the corner outfield is another matter. Duvall was drafted into the squad with Jarred Kelenic in left field, but after right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered a knee injury in late May and a recent hamstring strain, center fielder Michael Harris II was benched. sidelined indefinitely, the Braves began playing Kelenic and Duvall every day with Forrest Wall or Ramón Laureano of the Cleveland Guardians.

Kelenic thrived in center and leadoff in Harris’ absence, but Duvall’s slump worsened with exposure to right-handed pitching: he was 9-for-97 (.093) with 37 strikeouts against righties through Thursday, with a .242 OPS against them that was worst in the major leagues among hitters with more than 30 at-bats against righties.

The Braves can live with Charlie Morton’s inconsistency in the fourth spot, but they need to add a starting pitcher, even though Ian Anderson is expected to return from Tommy John surgery shortly after the All-Star break. They can’t rely on the prospects and other players they used in the back of the rotation, or on Anderson after the right-hander missed a season and a half. They also know that as great as Sale and López have been, Sale hasn’t been healthy for a full season since 2019, and López has already pitched more innings (79 1/3) than he did in any season since 2019, his last full season as a starter.

With those needs in mind, here are some trade proposals I’ve come up with, with thoughts on each from our resident expert, former MLB general manager Jim Bowden. — David O’Brien

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The Braves would add another big bat to their command in Rooker, who has 30 home runs, a .488 slugging percentage and a 128 OPS+ in 2023, and has been even better this season with 14 homers, .506 of strikeouts and a 145 OPS+ through Wednesday. , but with 97 strikeouts, leading the American League. He would improve Atlanta now, and with three more years of contract control, he would provide insurance if Acuña has issues in 2025 returning from ACL surgery, as he did in 2022 returning from his first ACL surgery . And if the Braves decide not to option DH Marcell Ozuna’s contract for 2025 or not extend it beyond, Rooker is an experienced DH.

The Braves would give up a top pitching prospect in Kuehler, a second-round pick in the 2023 draft who has a 2.21 ERA in his first 13 minor league starts (all in Low-A), and a top-10 organizational prospect in Guanipa, an 18-year-old burner who signed for $2.5 million last year out of Venezuela and projects as an MLB center fielder. Exposito, 23, caught the eye with a career-best season so far at High-A Rome, batting .286 with 11 homers, 22 stolen bases and an .858 OPS.

Bowden: Oakland should jump into this deal and call a news conference even before A’s general manager David Forst gets off the phone with Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos. If the A’s could get Kuehler straight for Rooker, I think this proposed trade is a win for them, but also getting Guanipa makes it a no-brainer. Remove Exposito from the deal; Oakland doesn’t even need him in this proposition to make a deal.

For the Braves, this will feel like a repeat of three years ago, when they acquired Jorge Soler from Kansas City at the trade deadline. Rooker will add a lot more power to their lineup, and while I don’t like the 29-year-old defensively, Atlanta has Duvall to play defense late in the game. The Braves are so good defensively that they can have a below-average defender in the outfield and still win. Rooker could help them advance in the playoffs by adding depth to their roster, but I actually like Oakland’s side of this trade a lot more than Atlanta’s, especially in the long run.

White Sox get: LHP Riley Frey

Pham has big-game credentials and remains a professional hitter at age 36, as evidenced by his .345 OBP and 109 OPS+ in 45 games heading into Thursday. He can bring the coveted, elusive “edge” to a team that’s hard to define but players know when it’s coming. A big plus for Atlanta: He’s on a low-cost, one-year deal, so the outlay won’t be too great, in terms of prospects or salary, to sign him as a rental. Pham hit .313 with six homers and an .846 OPS in 31 playoff games. That included 16 hits in 14 games over Arizona’s last three playoff runs in 2023, homering in each of them, including the World Series.

Frey, a lefty with a funky delivery from a lower arm slot, has impressed since the Braves took him in the 19th round of the 2023 draft out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. He has a 1.82 ERA in 12 games (eight starts) at two Class A levels this season, with 46 strikeouts and 15 walks in 59 1/3 innings.

Bow: A fair deal for both sides and the idea works for both teams. Pham has been traded at the trade deadline each of the last two years, so he might as well make it three in a row. He has brought a unique side to every club he has played for and is a winning player. He is at the end of his career, but he can still hit with power and steal bases. I like the fit and price of the prospect for Atlanta. From the White Sox perspective, they should trade Pham to open the door for their young players to develop.

White Sox get: right-handed pitcher Garrett Baumann and right-handed pitcher Mario Baez

After a year in the KBO, Erick Fedde returned to the major leagues and is having the best year of his career. (Lon Horwedel/USA Today)

Fedde is having a successful first season in the majors after a year in South Korea. The 31-year-old finished seventh in MLB in innings pitched (100 1/3) and 14th in the AL with a 3.23 ERA after starting Wednesday against the Dodgers. He is signed through 2025 and has a salary of $7.5 million next year, and Fedde would provide some security heading into the offseason with Max Fried eligible for free agency, Charlie Morton considering retirement and Spencer Strider returning from elbow surgery and his status uncertain for the first part of the 2025 season.

Baumann, a 6-foot-8 right-hander selected in the fourth round of the 2023 draft out of Hagerty High near Orlando, has a 3.20 ERA after 12 starts in Low A with 44 strikeouts and 13 walks in 59 innings. Baez is a 17-year-old prospect at shortstop with exceptional speed, a stronger arm and a good glove. He hit in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut last summer, but struggled with the bat in the Florida Complex League. He is one of several shortstops among the Braves’ top 30 prospects.

Bow: I agree that the Braves really need another veteran starting pitcher, not because I don’t think one of their young starting pitchers will stand out and take the fifth spot in the rotation, but because I thinks the Braves need to guard against injuries to their veteran starting pitchers in the second half of the season. Fedde is a solid mid-rotation starting pitcher who understands how the league works and provides bulldog-type innings that will be crucial in August and September. However, if I were the White Sox, I would hope to get back a top pitching prospect in the deal, given Fedde’s extra year of control. Therefore, start the conversation with Kuehler and finish it with Baumann and Baez, then we can write the press release.

Rays get: RHP Garrett Baumann, OF Luis Guanipa

If the Rays decide to trade him, there’s a lot to like about Eflin, starting with 63 strikeouts and just six walks in 81 1/3 innings, the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors. While his strikeout rate is significantly lower than it was during his best seven years with the Phillies through 2022, so is his walk rate, a leader in the majors by 0.7 for nine innings. Eflin has a modest 4.20 ERA in 14 starts, but has averaged nearly six innings per outing and would be a great fit in the back of Atlanta’s rotation. He’s signed through 2025, a plus for a team that could lose starters Fried and Morton to free agency and retirement, respectively. Eflin’s three-year, $40 million deal calls for an $18 million salary in 2025 — a bit higher than ideal, but $2 million less than what the Braves paid Morton in each of the last three seasons. If the Rays can move all of that salary, that could also reduce the cost of returning a trade.

Bowden: If I were the Braves, while I would love to add Eflin to the rotation, I don’t like the $18 million salary in 2025 because of the financial exposure already projected for the rest of my roster. So unless the Rays are willing to take on some of the salary, which is unlikely because other teams would surely absorb the entire amount in a trade, I would probably focus more on a trade with the White Sox to acquire Fedde, who is much more affordable at $7.5 million in 2025.

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(Top photo by Brent Rooker: Godofredo A. Vásquez / Associated Press)