Odds, predictions and forecast for Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins

THE Houston Astros (46-43) and Minnesota Twins (50-39) meet Sunday to close out a 3-game series. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines from BetMGM Sportsbook around Astros vs Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

Houston lost Saturday’s game 9-3, snapping a three-game winning streak. Those 3 runs marked an aberration for the Astros, who were 13-2 while averaging 7.00 runs per game in their previous 15.

Minnesota batters have scored 33 runs over the last three days. With a double and two home runs Saturday, the Twins have collected 16 extra-base hits since Thursday.

Astros’ expected starters against Twins

RHP Spencer Arrighetti against RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

Arrighetti (4-7, 6.13 ERA) is making his 16th start. The 24-year-old rookie has a 1.65 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 69 innings.

• Last outing: Loss, 4 innings, 6 earned runs, 6 hits, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts in a 4-2 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday
• I have never faced Twins before

Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.52 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP.

• Last outing: No decision, 5 2/3 innings, 3 earned runs, 4 hits, 2 BB, 4 strikeouts in a 5-3 home win over the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday
• Pitching on 4 days’ rest for the first time since June 2, when he allowed 3 runs in 4 1/3 IP against these Astros (has allowed a .671 OPS for his career, but is hitting .917 when pitching on 4 days’ rest)
• Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 6.23 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, 4-3 road win on June 2

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Astros vs. Twins Odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; go to USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Twins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Running Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Twins -1.5 (+155)
• Plus/Minus (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Astros and Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 6, Twins 4

Money line

Houston is 3-1 in their last 4 games at Target Field. The Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.

Consider both of these starting pitchers regression picks. Both have expected ERA numbers separated from their ERAs by considerable margins. And expect Arrighetti’s regression to be worthy of support and Woods Richardson’s to be worthy of erasure.

Arrighetti is batting .351 on balls in play. He’s walking too many players, but he has less of an injury risk than his opponent in this game.

Woods Richardson is giving up louder contact, but he’s been helped by a .255 BABIP.

The Astros have won 6 straight playoff games. Taking advantage of a return available on FanDuel Sportsbook, RETURN HOUSTON (+110).

Racing Line/Against the Spread

Best relative value on the least juicy ML. PASS.

More less

The Over has been conceded in 7 consecutive Minnesota games and in 8 of Houston’s last 10 away games.

There is just a small margin of systemic weakness in the Minnesota team’s numbers (expect slightly higher scoring in Twins games). Minnesota’s offense has been solid at home. In road games, the Astros have gotten off to a slow start offensively. But heading into Saturday, they had a solid .808 OPS over their previous 9 road games.

With some tired relievers late in the week on both sides, expect some upside tilt in this game. BACK TO MORE THAN 9 (+100).

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