Can the Atlanta Braves still win the NL East?

The Atlanta Braves have won the NL East every year since 2018. It looked like it would be the same case this year until things went wrong. Now their six-game winning streak is threatened by what appears to be a baseball monster.

The Braves took an early lead in the NL East after winning the W in their first series of the year, against their biggest foe of the last two years, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves kept their foot on the gas for most of April until hitting a wall.

Since then, the Phillies have rushed like a juggernaut. Now, they maintain a comfortable 6-game lead over the second-placed Braves. With the various injuries and shortcomings since the start of the season, it’s easy to see what went wrong, but the tough question is can the Braves recover and take back the top spot?

A 6 game deficit is not pretty at all. But luckily we’re still pretty early in the year. To determine if a Braves comeback is likely, we need to take an in-depth look at both teams. The Phillies are 38-17 (MLB’s best record), a record indicative of a true titan. The Braves are 30-21, a record that still seems playoff-worthy. As a team, the Phillies posted a National League leading .258 AVG, 62 HR, .336 OBP and a National League leading 3.11 ERA.

The Braves posted a .250 AVG, 53 HR, .320 OBP and a 3.43 ERA. It’s clear to see why the Phillies are having a great year. We must also take into consideration the fact that Austin Riley and Sean Murphy just returned yesterday afternoon. This will likely give the Braves lineup some of the firepower they’ve been lacking recently. However, on the downside, the Phillies will likely get Trea Turner back in June. This raises another question: How can a team that had a winning percentage below .560 the last two years be so dominant this year?

To begin, we should look at each team’s performance compared to teams with winning records. Against teams above .500, the Braves are 12-12 (these numbers only include teams currently above .500). Likewise, the Phillies are 8-2. It’s mind-boggling that the Phillies have only faced winning teams in ten games this year.

For anyone who has been impressed by the Phillies’ magnificent record (including myself), this is sobering. This calls into question whether the Phillies are truly an extraordinary team this year or if they’ve just had an easy schedule so far. Make no mistake, the Phillies are still a very good team and their record against quality teams is exceptional, but they may not be as good as people think.

Think about last year’s Pirates. They got off to a brilliant start before falling back to earth and finishing 4th in the NL Central. The Pirates struggled when they started playing quality teams. This could be the case for the Phillies but to a lesser extent. Only time will tell if the Phillies’ record is a fluke. Still, if the Braves want to regain first place, they’ll have to do better than .500 against winning teams.

Can the Braves win the East again this year? Of course they can. It wouldn’t be the first time they’ve defied the odds. In 2022, they came back from a 10.5 game deficit they held on June 1 to dominate the NL East at season’s end (the Braves tied the Mets’ record 101-61, but won more of matchups to win first place and send the Mets to the Wildcard round).

And if the slumped sluggers in the Braves’ batting order regain their power, that’s almost a guarantee. The Braves’ only major concern is the fifth spot in the rotation. Since losing Strider, the Braves haven’t found anyone to replace him. Once this issue is resolved, the Braves should once again be a force to be reckoned with.

Aside from that, if the Braves want to give themselves the best chance of conquering the East again this season, they’ll need to beat the Phillies in head-to-head matchups like they did in their opening series. 2024. If they can. If that happens, their chances of winning the East for a seventh straight year will look very good.