Can the Houston Astros turn their season around in time?

Ten years ago, one could have argued that any type of major, lasting success for the Houston Astros would have been uncharted territory for them. After all, after the 2014 Series, this was a franchise that had won a total of three (3) playoff series and one (1) pennant over 53 seasons of existence in Major League Baseball. Here in 2024, it’s like the Astros only know success – success and controversy, but that’s not the topic at the moment. The fact is, since the 2015 season, the Astros have been in the playoffs where they have won four pennants and two World Series titles in just nine seasons.

Right now, the Astros may be heading into uncharted territory that isn’t good for them. After Tuesday’s action, Houston is six games under .500 and seven games behind the Seattle Mariners at 28-34. They’re also six games out of the Wild Card spot, and while you could easily argue that any talk of the division might be a bit myopic, the Wild Card conversation is one thing that remains relevant thanks to the new format. If you’re having trouble in this regard, things are definitely a little alarming. That’s where we are with Houston right now.

The Astros are struggling in both the division and the Wild Card and for the first time in a long time, we could be gearing up for a playoff that doesn’t involve Houston’s big hitters. Again, there’s still plenty of time left in the season, but they need to start rolling and rolling now if they really want to have a chance. But right now, it’s been very difficult for the Astros to get going in any facet of the game. They have a losing record in extra innings (3-5), they struggle a lot in close games and especially in one-run games (5-13), it doesn’t matter if it’s day or night, turf or turf, right-handed or left-handed pitcher on the mound, they just don’t have a lane to navigate For now.

The Astros are hitting more than their fair share, as evidenced by the fact that (heading into action on June 4) they are hitting .258/.321/.417 as a team with an isolated power number of .159 and a team wRC+ of 112. The problem is that as good as their hitting is (and even still, you could argue they’re underperforming compared to previous seasons), it’s how bad their pitching has been bad. Their pitching staff has an ERA- And FIP- over 110, which is good for being a bottom 10 team in all of baseball and even bottom five in FIP-. This is largely due to the fact that Houston’s starting pitcher has been absolutely terrible and depleted by injuries.

Cristian Javier is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery and we’re also unlikely to see José Urquidy again anytime soon due to his own forearm discomfort. Luis Garcia is still returning from injury, which means three of Houston’s top arms are currently dealing with injury issues and only one of them seems certain to return this season while the other two could be out for the rest of the season. . This is an extremely concerning development for Houston and no team in baseball can attest to the injury issues that have plagued major league pitchers this season quite like the Astros.

The launchers who to have When healthy, Houston just didn’t get the job done. Justin Verlander has looked old instead of like himself, Framber Valdez hasn’t looked like himself in his last two seasons where he was very reliable, Hunter Brown hasn’t looked good at all this season and they’ve had to rely on guys like Ronel Blanco and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. No offense to the last two pitchers mentioned, but if those are the guys leading the way in your rotation, then it doesn’t really look good for your starting pitching situation – especially when one of those pitchers has recently been caught using sticky stuff during the year. of our Lord 2024.

As a result of what’s happening, it’s almost as if Houston’s chances of holding on to what appears to be a perpetual playoff spot are diminishing by the day. While FanGraphs still currently gives them the second-best odds to turn things around and enter the playoffs, their overall playoff chances are currently well below 50 percent and decreasing with each loss they suffer. If they want to make the playoffs, they don’t just have to worry about the Mariners leading the division at the moment – they have to worry about overtaking teams that are closer to .500 or even above . that for the moment. Before they even think about it, they need to find a way to get some traction and stop spinning their proverbial wheels in the mud.

Looking ahead, some teams already have their eyes set on the trade deadline and it certainly seems fascinating to imagine what the Houston Astros would do if they still find themselves in the mess they’re in Currently. However, Astros general manager Dana Brown went on MLB Network last month (when the Astros were nine games under .500 and in last place) and said he “couldn’t imagine” the Astros being sellers at the deadline, then recently doubled down on his statements to Chandler. Rome from The Athletic with them currently down double digits below .500. Additionally, ESPN’s Jeff Passan made sure to point out that it’s not Astros owner Jim Crane’s “style” to allow a trade at the deadline. To be honest, why would it be? After all, Crane has been the owner since November 2011 and after a few very lean years early on, the Astros have been consistent contenders ever since.

Dana Brown also made sure to bring up Chandler Rome about the fact that we’ve seen stories of necromancy in baseball, as the 2021 Atlanta Braves (where Dana Brown was VP of Scouting) only got over .500 on August 6. It’s certainly possible for a team to spend two-thirds of the season sleepwalking before launching into a title run, but that requires almost everything to go that team’s way (both with under and off factors). of his control) to make this happen.

The Astros would not only have to warm up, but also respect each deadline acquisition and hope that the Mariners slow down and the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers don’t wake up either. As long as that happens, the Astros are by no means dead and their front office has every right to suggest that they will look to improve at the deadline instead of being sellers. While they may not have much to manage organizationally as they pay the price for sustained success with their consistently low-rated farm system, that hasn’t stopped the teams from past picking up the phone and trying. to swing a win-now deal in their favor. It looks like that won’t stop Houston either.

That being said, there is no better time than the present for Houston to finally begin to take off. We’ve seen crazier turnarounds in baseball history, but they need to start their turnaround soon if they want to have a chance at this. Otherwise, this could be considered a rare season in recent memory where the road to the American League World Series does not pass through Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas.