Hurricane Beryl expected to move through South Texas with uncertain path

The National Hurricane Center extended its hurricane watch east along the Texas coast to the San Luis Pass as Beryl continued to track across the Yucatan Peninsula Friday night.

The system, which weakened from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane after Beryl made landfall in the Yucatan, is expected to regain strength as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane again as it approaches the Texas coast later this weekend.

The hurricane center also issued a storm surge warning as far north as High Island and warned of the potential for rip tides across the Gulf.

The storm’s continued development and expected northwesterly direction from the Yucatan Peninsula increasingly suggest that Beryl’s effects could reach Houston.

Earlier Friday, Space City Weather meteorologist Matt Lanza advised Houston-area residents to prepare, but not panic, for the storm’s arrival.

“It’s particularly tricky for Houston,” Lanza said. “The cone is where the center of the storm can go. You have to treat it with a grain of salt because a lot of impacts propagate out from the center.”

The National Hurricane Center’s 10 p.m. update shifted the potential landfall from far southern Texas to the area between Corpus Christi and Matagorda Bay, Lanza tweeted.

Beryl made landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula Friday morning as a Category 1 storm, but weakened to a tropical storm late in the afternoon with sustained winds of up to 60 mph. The storm was initially expected to turn north after passing through the Gulf of Mexico Friday night, regaining strength before approaching the southern Texas coast Sunday night as a hurricane, according to a 4 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

The center issued a hurricane and storm surge watch along the Texas coast from the Rio Grande to Sargent in eastern Matagorda County. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected along parts of the Gulf Coast and eastern Texas, with local amounts approaching 15 inches, the NHC advisory said. Flash flooding and urban flooding are possible along parts of the coast and eastern Texas through the middle of next week. The 10 p.m. advisory included the same warnings and noted that tropical storm-force winds could extend up to 105 miles (170 km) from the storm center.

Beryl’s apostrophe-shaped “cone of uncertainty” — what the National Hurricane Center predicts as the storm’s likely path — encompassed much of the Texas coast Friday night.

The storm’s impacts and intensity on the Houston area will depend on the track it takes over the next 24 hours, Lanza said.

“The problem is that the storm is turning,” he explained. “When it comes in at an angle, the turn can be very abrupt. It’s those small changes in angle that can result in a 50 to 100 nautical mile difference in where the storm makes landfall.”

If the storm tracks far enough north toward Corpus Christi, it could make landfall as late as Monday. If it tracks farther southeast, it could make landfall as early as Sunday night, according to the NWS.

Houston is unlikely to see hurricane-force winds, but it could see strong gusts and lots of rainfall, Lanza said.

Residents along the coast should start preparing for tidal flooding no matter where the storm ultimately makes landfall, Lanza said. Tides are expected to peak around noon Monday, according to the NWS.

The eastern side of a hurricane always produces more rainfall than the western side because the storm’s counterclockwise rotation draws in moist tropical air, creating rainbands extending away from the storm’s center, Lanza said.

The National Hurricane Center encouraged residents to closely monitor the storm’s track and their local forecasts as the storm moves out of Mexico and into the Gulf.

Harris County officials said they are closely monitoring Beryl’s progress.

“Houston has a lot of opportunities for Beryl,” said Brian Murray, deputy emergency management coordinator for the Harris County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. “We have to wait and see.”

Murray said he did not expect Beryl to prompt evacuations, but said the storm could bring several inches of rain.

Officials said Beryl’s impact on the Houston area would become clearer throughout the weekend. Murray urged residents to stay alert to office messages and forecasts.

The city of Houston is preparing for the many possible impacts of the storm on the region, said Brent Taylor, communications director for the Houston Office of Emergency Management.

Taylor explained that most of these preparations take place before and during hurricane season, regardless of the current storm threat. He encouraged Houstonians to take the same steps now, such as developing an emergency plan and stocking up on supplies needed in case of a hurricane.

“This is not the time to panic, but it is time to prepare,” Taylor said.

The Office of Emergency Management offers hurricane preparedness checklists and registration for city emergency alerts.

While it’s too early to consider calling for evacuations, Taylor encouraged residents to sign up for emergency alerts as Beryl moves closer to Texas.

The biggest threat to the city will likely be precipitation, Taylor added.

“In Houston, a hurricane doesn’t cause huge flooding,” he said. “We’ve seen that many times, and recently as well.”

Reporter McKenna Oxenden contributed to this article.