If the Hawks win the NBA draft lottery, should they keep or trade their pick?

The first big day of what should be a busy offseason for the Atlanta Hawks is Sunday. The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery takes place this Sunday and the Hawks will find out where they draft in next month’s draft. As of Sunday, Atlanta’s position heading into the draft is 10th and they have a 13.9% chance of making the top four and a 3% chance of landing the top pick. Atlanta has never had much luck when it comes to the NBA Draft Lottery, but this may be the year that works out in their favor.

Of course, this isn’t a draft in which teams are eager to be at the top. There’s no talent like Victor Wembanyama or Zion Williamson, but having the No. 1 pick would be better than the 10th. It’s a more valuable asset to use a trade chip if Atlanta decides to go that route.

While highly unlikely, what should the Hawks do if they lucked out in the lottery this weekend and landed the No. 1 pick?

I think most people’s response would be to try to trade him, given the perceived weakness of this draft. The question would be what type of player you could get in return.

There are a number of possibilities in terms of players that may be available for trade. From Brandon Ingram, Jarrett Allen, Kevin Durant, among others, a number of players could be available this summer. Having the No. 1 pick would certainly increase the odds, but it wouldn’t be as much of a guarantee as in years past.

Atlanta might be in a better position to welcome a player and then make him part of the future. The player who would outperform the Hawks is Alex Sarr, the one prospect who appears to be a lock to go top-three in this draft.

In a weak draft, Sarr stands out as the top prospect for me and I have him ranked as the top prospect on my first big Atlanta Hawks board of the summer. Sarr is a very athletic and versatile player that Atlanta would love to have on its roster. While there is a lot of debate about the top of the draft and where these prospects will land, I think Atlanta will have to go in the top four or higher if they want to take Sarr. If Atlanta stays at 10th, where they are most likely to pick, then Atlanta has almost no chance of landing Sarr.

Although his offense needs some work, especially when it comes to shooting, Sarr might have the most upside in this class and fills a need for the Hawks. He could be the center of the future and help build a reliable defense around Trae Young. Could Sarr and Onyeka Okongwu get along on the pitch? That would be a question Atlanta would have to answer if they won the lottery and took Sarr.

It would be a huge win for the Hawks if they were forced to make this decision. While the draft may not have a can’t-miss prospect, I think Sarr is clearly the better player and would fill a huge need for Atlanta.

The other thing to note is that Atlanta likely won’t have to make a decision on trading the pick until after the draft. They might decide to wait, take a player and see who emerges on the trade market this summer.

It’s an unlikely scenario, but one the Hawks would love to find themselves in. This would be a good way to try to improve the roster around the players the front office wants to keep.