Today’s Best MLB Bets (Astros to Crush Dodgers)

Don’t let the Olympics distract you as we have a loaded slate of MLB games to bet on today, including an afternoon showdown between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers.

If you’re struggling to figure out what bets to place on such a packed schedule of games, let me help you out. I’m going to share with you my top three bets for today’s action.

Let’s dive in.

You might think the UNDER is the game based on today’s pitching matchup between Reynaldo Lopez (2.12 ERA) and David Peterson (3.14 ERA), but I’m going to zig while everyone else zigs.

Lopez’s ERA is better than it should be based on his 3.17 FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and 1.19 WHIP. We could see some regression coming, and it may have already started. He’s allowed a combined 18 hits and seven earned runs in his last two starts. He has a tough opponent today against a Mets offense that ranks third in OPS (.808) since June 1.

There’s no doubt the Braves’ offense has struggled of late, ranking 24th in OPS at .688 since June 1, but their struggles have mostly come from right-handed pitching. Against lefties in that same span, they have a .771 OPS. The fact that they’re facing a lefty in David Peterson today should bode well for them.

I’m going to bet on the OVER in this NL East matchup.

Pick: Braves vs. Mets OVER 8 (-110)

River Ryan didn’t allow an earned run in his first career start when the Dodgers faced the Giants earlier this week, but that metric is extremely misleading in this case. The youngster also allowed four hits, three walks and one unearned run, which equates to a 4.08 FIP. There’s a good chance he’ll allow a few runs today against a solid Astros lineup.

There’s no doubt that Spencer Arrighetti has had his ups and downs with the Astros, but his ERA has steadily improved since his disastrous start to the season. His 4.36 FIP shows there’s still some positive regression to come.

I’ll be backing the Astros as home favorites in this interleague matchup.

Pick: Astros -125 vs. Dodgers

We all know how bad the White Sox offense is. Since June 1st, they are last in the standings with a .634 OPS, and the second worst team is the Los Angeles Angels with a .651 OPS.

What you may not know is just how bad the Mariners’ offense is. They’re second to last in OPS (.680) over the same span, but they’re also hitting just .212, which is the worst mark in Major League Baseball, even worse than the White Sox.

The White Sox also put one of their best pitchers in Garrett Crochet (3.07 ERA) into action today. A matchup between him and the Mariners’ Bryce Miller (3.41 ERA) has all the makings of a pitching duel.

Pick: Mariners vs. White Sox UNDER 7 (-115)

Odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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