Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, 05/11/2024 MLB Picks, Best Bets and Odds

Game: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Date: Saturday May 11, 2024

Location: Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan

TV: Bally Sports Detroit

Odds/point spread: Houston (-126) Detroit (+108)

The Detroit Tigers (19-18) host the Houston Astros (13-24) at Comerica Park on Saturday. The moneyline for this contest has the Astros at -126 while the Tigers are priced at +108. The betting total is set at 8. The starting pitchers are Cristian Javier and Tarik Skubal.

As a unit, the Houston Astros score 4.4 runs per game, which ranks them 16th in MLB. They racked up 162 points while holding a team OBP of .324. The Astros racked up 57 double-baggers as a unit and hit 44 baseballs out of the stadium. They have accumulated 155 runs on over 330 hits for the season, and their team batting average stands at .258. Houston is hitting .411 and has struck out 243 times, while drawing walks 116 times.

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The Astros own a team earned run average of 5.00 on the year (28th in baseball) and their team has fielded 302 batters. Astros pitchers gave up 44 long balls and 193 total runs (26th in the league). They’ve walked 158 players from the other team and their FIP sits at 4.70 as a unit for the year. Houston allowed 325 hits (9.0 per 9 innings) and 181 earned runs. Their K/BB ratio is 1.91 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.48.

Astros pitchers have gone on the hill with players on base 28 times in addition to having 37 appearances in high-leverage situations. The bullpen totaled 16 catches on the season (27th in the league). Astros relief pitchers have a 33.3% save percentage and have come into play in 28 save situations. They have made 4 saves this season and have missed 8 of 12 opportunities to get a save. The relievers inherited 43 baserunners this year and 23.3% of them crossed the plate. The Astros have sent 126 relievers to the hill so far this year.

The Astros have turned 68.2% of baseballs in play into outs over their 2,934 innings on the field, which ranks 25th in baseball. The Houston Astros had a total of 978 outs during the season, along with 316 assists and 18 errors. Their defensive percentage sits at .986, which places them 9th in the majors and have won 37 double plays.

Javier (35-21 career record) owns a 3.63 FIP while facing 2,091 opposing batters in the major leagues. He allowed 462 hits (8.3 hits per 9 innings) with 167 free passes. His ERA is 3.25 (181 ER allowed) and he has a career WHIP of 1.255. Javier took the ball for 501 frames and accumulated 455 punch-outs during his career.

Detroit compiled 32 home runs during the season along with 140 RBIs. They have 53 double-baggers, while walking 117 times and driving in 149 runs. The Detroit Tigers had an OBP of .300 in addition to a team batting average of .227 for the year. The Tigers hold a team slugging percentage of .362 and earn 4.03 runs per game (21st in baseball). They were called on strikes 335 times (9th in baseball) and totaled 282 hits.

The Tigers have a team WHIP of 1.117 in addition to having a FIP of 3.64 as a pitching staff for the season. They come in 4th in the MLB with a total of 269 hits given up. Detroit’s pitching staff has allowed 143 runs so far this year while holding a team ERA of 3.29 (121 earned runs given up). They had a K/BB ratio of 8.80 (325 strikeouts to 101 walks). They have given up 35 long balls and are allowing 3.89 runs per 9 innings (10th in baseball).

Detroit asked bullpen pitchers to take the mound on 20 save opportunities and they got 11 saves. They are ranked 24th in MLB with a 55.0% save percentage and have sent 111 relievers to the hill for the season. Their relief pitchers came in 52 times in high-leverage situations and also 37 times with runners. Detroit’s bullpen pitchers hold an inherited scoring percentage of 27.5% on their 51 inherited runners. Sitting with 39 stop situations, the Tigers totaled 19 catches and 9 blown stops.

The Detroit Tigers have made 27 double plays and have a defensive percentage of 0.983 (24th in the majors). The Tigers have recorded 301 assists, 23 errors and have 995 putouts on the season. In 2,985 innings on the field, the Tigers have accumulated a defensive efficiency of 71.9% (6th in professional baseball).

During his MLB career, Skubal gave up 27 hits while totaling 52 Ks in 41 innings. He allowed a total of 12 ER while posting a 0.780 WHIP and 3.3 FIP. His K/BB ratio is 10.40 and he has faced 154 batters in his MLB career. Skubal (2-3 career win-loss record) had a 2.63 ERA while allowing 5.9 hits per 9 innings.

Who will win tonight’s MLB game against the spread or the moneyline?

Guy Bruhn’s choice: take Detroit (+108)

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