NFL analytics expert projects record rookie season for Bills WR Keon Coleman

If we count “imaginary” touches, Buffalo Bills rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman has already found terror three times at Highmark Stadium. One NFL expert expects him to triple that production once touchdowns start showing up on the scoreboard.

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund recently appeared on One Bills Live to analyze Buffalo’s outcome in the 2024 NFL Draft, spending some time breaking down the type of production and impact that fans of the Bills can expect the team’s first pick in the draft. The analyst expects immediate production from Coleman, who was selected by the team to help fill the hole in the receiving corps left by the offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis; Frelund expects Coleman to score nine touchdowns in his rookie campaign, which would tie Lee Evans in the 2004 NFL campaign for the most all-time by a Buffalo rookie.

“It’s hard to make projections for rookies in general, it’s harder when you don’t know much about how their quarterback will perform at the next level,” Frelund said. “So the Rome Odunzes of the world have a very different projection than someone who is in a system with a guy like Josh Allen, who is a very useful known entity. Ultimately, I think nine (hits) is the floor. . . Just a little interesting, it’s actually one more touchdown than the guy who’s in Houston now (Diggs). It’s just interesting. I thought that was an interesting number to add to our analysis.

This is an optimistic, but not egregious, projection for Coleman, who showed a penchant for making money throughout his college career; The 6-foot-3 wide receiver scored 19 total touchdowns in his two years at Michigan State and his lone campaign at Florida State, including 11 last season in Tallahassee. He’s a bit raw and will need to improve as a route runner, but his volume opportunity is clear; Coleman is now a focal point of a Buffalo receiving corps that lost a total of 152 receptions, 1,929 yards and 15 touchdowns with the offseason losses of Diggs and Davis.

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Nine touchdowns as a rookie would tie Evans, one of Buffalo’s two first-round picks in the 2004 NFL Draft, for the most all-time in franchise history (we’re not going to (not to mention his other first-round selection). That would be the most for a Bills rookie pass catcher since Davis had seven scores during the 2020 NFL season.

It’s Coleman’s ability to find the end zone, coupled with his “attack the football” catching mentality and cold-weather experience that, for Frelund, make him a great choice in the Western New York. She views the big target as the team’s primary boundary option, a player who will benefit from the bevy of talented splitters the Bills deploy in the middle of the field.

“When it came to Coleman, there was probably a feeling that in this organization and what they would like to do, which is you have to have a guy who can handle a fastball, because Josh Allen throws the ball very hard, as we know, you have to have a guy who is big, physical, (and) who has enough experience in cold weather to be able to understand the elements. to remind anyone in Bills Mafia that he also played at Michigan State, where it’s cold,” Frelund said. “At the end of the day, you’re looking at a guy who has a flair for the end zone in a way. where, they haven’t played 12 (Florida State staff) as much as (the Bills) will probably play 12 this season, but he’s going to have a chance to be a stretcher on the field, get on the perimeter and to take advantage of the fact that the middle is going to be crowded given that the Bills just have really good tight ends who can also handle the ball.

“I think it will be a very good decision; I hate when people say it’s addition by subtraction, but I think in terms of what this offense in its reconstituted form would like to do, this guy is a huge addition considering all the subtractions.